Risk Assessment of Metro Project Construction based on AHP-Cloud Model
To address the fuzziness and randomness inherent in construction risk assessment for metro projects, this study proposes a risk assessment method integrating the cloud model with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study establishes a construction risk assessment index system comprising 20 indicators across five dimensions: organizational, management, technical, economic, and social. AHP determines the indicator weights. The method then constructs standard clouds for different risk levels and uses an inverse cloud generator to transform expert scores into evaluation clouds. The cloud similarity algorithm calculates similarities between the evaluation clouds and the standard clouds to construct a similarity matrix, which is then integrated with the indicator weights to obtain the final assessment results. An empirical analysis of a metro project in Southwest China shows that overall construction risk is relatively high, with technical and management risks identified as the primary areas requiring control. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can comprehensively characterize the fuzziness and randomness inherent in expert evaluations and provide a reference for risk identification, risk-level determination, and hierarchical risk control in metro construction projects.
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